The New Normal

The New Normal was a term to describe the financial conditions after The Great Recession of 2008-2009 by Mohamed El-Erian, currently the chief economic advisor at Allianz. The concept of the New Normal is that the economy would remain sluggish and take many years to recover. The Old Normal   The Old Normal for many… Continue Reading: The New Normal

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

I took a statistics class back in college. Like many of my other subjects I didn’t do that well in it. I did, however, gain a deeper understanding of what average meant and still continue to aspire to get up there someday. The United States Government produces no shortage of statistics. The amount of data… Continue Reading: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

3 Proven Reasons Why Investors Should Have Their Own Personal Inflation Index

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INFLATION

 

 

1) The Federal Government Figures Appear to be Gamed

 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (“BLS”) issues the inflation numbers monthly. It’s convenient that the government inserted the word ‘Labor’ into this bureau. Otherwise it would just be “BS”. The number to focus on is the Consumer Price Index (“CPI”).

To do this calculation, they strip out food and energy costs. Their reasoning for this is that these categories are too volatile. Fair enough, they are. But don’t forget, you are still constantly buying food and energy.  After these two are removed, this is the so-called Core Inflation Rate. This is currently running at 1.6% annually as of January 2014.

The primary issue with how this number is calculated is what they call “quality improvements.” For example, if you buy a new computer that has more memory, a faster processor and better resolution in the monitor, this is adjusted in the inflation index.  The bottom line is that the Core Inflation Index is suspect at best.

Continue Reading: 3 Proven Reasons Why Investors Should Have Their Own Personal Inflation Index